“All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”
– Sun Tzu, L'Arte della Guerra
Welcome back again,
As you already know, a series of summits between NATO and the Russian Federation will begin this week, mainly to discuss the Ukrainian crisis. Or perhaps it would be more correct to say that they will have to discuss the Russian crisis, basically they are the same thing. In the past week, anyone who has listened to a minimum of statements from both sides will have noticed, like me, that the tones went up until yesterday, a few days before the actual summit (obviously they also took place less formal preliminary talks, it is certainly not a secret) and then probabily dissolve, and, most likely, end up in nothing.
It is absolutely not my intention to disrespect anybody, but Russia’s behavior is very reminiscent of would-be suicides: those who want to take their own life usually just do it, those who threaten, “try”, or announce it generally have serious problems, for which they seeks serious attention. Here, whoever intends to invade a country would not announce it for over a year, giving an eventual opponent the opportunity to prepare countermeasures. When the Russian troops entered the separatist territories in Ukraine disguised for the first time, they did not warn anyone, on the contrary, they were careful not to reveal themselves and until the formal annexation of those territories officially there were no Russian soldiers in the ORDLO, as far as everyone knew very well that it was a lie.
The Kremlin in the past few days has pulled out the whole repertoire: “Spheres of Influence”, “National Sovereignty”, “NATO provocations”, “Inseparability of Russia and Ukraine”, etc. all while the truth is that the United States, besides some harsh talking, are now completely disengaging from that front looking at the Far East, and the European Union, as usual, does not seem to want to take the opportunity to do something more concrete than declarations in no particular order with more or less accommodating tones despite the fact that, at least in theory, it should be the one most concerned about the progress of the matter, since as well as on the Ukrainian front it is also engaged on the Belarusian one, but at present it is essentially excluded from the games.
Speaking of Europe, in recent days the leaders of the Russian administration have moved to contact their “friends” in Europe, and strange as it may seem, obviously I’m not talking about all those national-populist movements/parties that in the recent years, the Kremlin has helped to grow in one way or another. We turned to France and Germany as the first commercial partners, the latter has recently seen the completion and authorization for the start-up of North Stream 2, a conduit that would bring the precious Russian gas directly to the old continent, bypassing, coincidentally, Ukraine’s territory. Vladimir Putin even phoned his old friend Silvio Berlusconi, former italian Prime Minister and who now someone would see as President of the Republic, asserting that Italy could take on the role of mediator between Russia and the United States, as happened in the early 2000s.
Not exactly the attitude of someone who has decided to go to war.
I have already explained in previous articles how I see a Russia at the corner, and how this aggression derives from this, and why it is aimed exclusively at the United States (even when we talk about NATO, it is understood that we are talking about them), and not even at Ukraine itself. We will see what will happen this week, before drawing conclusions, assuming it is possible, as usual, no astrological predictions are made here, and we have always take present to ourselves the unexpected.
Thanks for reading this short piece, see you next time.